Product Description

The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming 13 year depression of unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning nominally in 2012, but perhaps as early as 2009-2010. The book is very easy to read and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered.

January 2010 Update
1. First, read the prior year update below.
2. The January 2009 update predicting a 2009 rally of perhaps 30% from a new low of around 7000 did happen . . . and more!
3. With NASDAQ now added from 1985 onwards to reflect its then significant percentage of the total market s capitalization (see chart on books ws at . . thegreatbustahead . . ), the correlation with the demographic becomes even more stunning than just the DJIA alone.
4. The 2007-09 deviation from the demographic is a manmade short-term (at this point) deviation. As described in the book, short-term is 1-3 years. We may yet recover in 2010 and start to follow the demographic line again.
5. However, as per the book, we have now entered the period of great danger from 2010 onwards. The demographics based depression could begin as early as 2010. This is based on the fact that if a single age of 49 is used for the book s charts, rather than the five year groupings, the demographic peaks in 2010 (Chart 8 in the book) rather than 2012. So, we may now continue to climb the curve to 2012 (which is an actual DJIA peak of about 20K), OR see the crash begin at any time from now onwards.
6. Riding this last period is highly dangerous and must be done with great care as you will be embarking upon brinkmanship. If the projected DJIA returns to following the demographic a very enticing potential DJIA gain of about 90% by 2012 is in the offing. After 2009 s 60%+ rally from the low, 90% over the next 3 years does seem very possible but, as we know, that rally was NOT at all reflective of a recovery in the economy. The sub-prime legacy and further residential and growing commercial foreclosures may drag us down yet again in 2010/11.
7. Per the book s 2002 warning, I still recommend being out of all stock based investments no later than 2010. Then wait for long bonds to peak around 6% (probably in 2010/11). Then invest in medium to long term treasuries. These bonds should then offer a substantial gain when interest rates crash again in the first year or two of the depression.

January 2009 Update:
1. 2008 was the victim of a self inflicted sub-prime financial crisis. This has nothing to do with the demographics based massive depression that is yet to come, as described in the book. The sub-prime consequences are however very similar though mild so far compared to what is coming our way. The book clearly spelled out that along the way unpredictable short-term (1 to 3 years) disruptive events could happen. The sub-prime crisis is just that. It should be regarded as the warmer upper or hors d'oeuvre for the big one that is now rapidly closing in on us all.
2. It is unknown at this point whether the sub-prime based crisis will drag on beyond 2009 and then blend into the demographics based massive decline which could begin as early as 2009-10.
3. There is the strong possibility that we will see an interim recovery manifested as a rally in 2009 of perhaps 30% on the Dow after a new low of around 7,000. The only certainty is that historically in the long-term the Dow always returns to the demographic. The immutable demographic remains in a very strong upswing as it moves toward its 2012 peak before crashing. Also waiting in the wings are trillions of dollars earning very little in money market funds.

See ws for additional info

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #555776 in Books
• Published on: 2002-11-25
• Original language: English
• Binding: Paperback
• 64 pages

Review
October 2007 Update:
In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snapback to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what happened. The full snapback was delayed for the reasons described, but the DJIA has closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snapback for the reasons described, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened. --author

From the Publisher
If there ever was a book that should be read by the entire adult population, this is it. The events described in The Great Bust Ahead will be the greatest story of the first quarter of the twenty-first century, if not the century. All of our lives are going to be dramatically affected beginning in just a few years from now. The depression of epic proportions that is predicted has THIRTY MILLION unemployed and stock market losses of over eighteen TRILLION dollars. The book leaves you with the conviction that for the first time you understand what the economy is all about. Everything presented in the book is so factual, so unchallengeable, it is hard to know what to say other than "go read it" and then start preparing as best you can.

About the Author
Dan Arnold had a fifteen year management and consultant career with General Electric. He then started and ran a successful manufacturing company in Santa Clara County California for ten years. After being bought out by a larger company Dan focused on investment and understanding the economy's long-term trends. This work lead directly to his shocking book.